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[Nerjin]

Oh so you thought you had a hidden power role that was not mentioned in your PM, or the OP.  In spite of the fact that you clearly understand the mechanics of the game and read the OP.

When one plays BM's most the time they get used to power roles. It had been several days since I had read the thing. Yeah, I shoulda paid more attention. Yeah I'll admit it seems pretty scummy. An honest mistake was made but I doubt that I can really convince of that. Let's be honest here, how likely is it that I could convince you after this? I'd pretty much have to quote my Role PM to you wouldn't I? If that would even work.

[notquitethere]

Nerjin

Nerjin, just go for that team. We'll only know it was a good one if it succeeds. (Besides, spraypainting isn't that hard, and your team has the smarts, the muscle and the heart to win!)

That right there. He doesn't seem all that worried about finding scum and even goes so far as to say so. Seems awfully suspicious to me. He'd have to do some SERIOUS convincing before I'd consider him for a team again.

I imply you have the brains, and you find me suspicious: I'm beginning to see why that kind of supposition would be suspicious!

I've since accepted the argument that it isn't just a logic game and we should be getting reads. I think Tiruin's arguments might have some merit, but I suspect that in fact he just put together the team least likely to be accepted. I don't know what you want to hear from me. I know I'm not a spy and this will be borne out in play, but until we actually get started with missions I don't think anyone can be sure of anyone else's alignments.

Ford
What's your beef, man? We're all supposed to be comrades here. Dismissing me as a spy before we have even the slightest scrap of evidence hurts the cause and makes you look bad.

Tiruin
I like endless speculation as much as the next person, but I'd also like to discuss things in an environment where we have concrete information. That's not going to happen until after the first mission. I'm nice you put me on the team. However, I'm thinking that as Nerjin, and to some extent Ford, have been tunnelling me so intently, it's likely that one or the other is scum and that this could be an attempt for you (as a spy) to put me on a failing mission with two others. Afterwards, I'll be the patsy that people will blame, while the real spies come up smelling like roses.

Everyone: am I being paranoid or does what I've just outlined sound like a plausible scenario?

[Nerjin]

Nerjin

Nerjin, just go for that team. We'll only know it was a good one if it succeeds. (Besides, spraypainting isn't that hard, and your team has the smarts, the muscle and the heart to win!)

That right there. He doesn't seem all that worried about finding scum and even goes so far as to say so. Seems awfully suspicious to me. He'd have to do some SERIOUS convincing before I'd consider him for a team again.

I imply you have the brains, and you find me suspicious: I'm beginning to see why that kind of supposition would be suspicious!

I've since accepted the argument that it isn't just a logic game and we should be getting reads. I think Tiruin's arguments might have some merit, but I suspect that in fact he just put together the team least likely to be accepted. I don't know what you want to hear from me. I know I'm not a spy and this will be borne out in play, but until we actually get started with missions I don't think anyone can be sure of anyone else's alignments.

That's more like it. You're making progress in the right direction although I'm still heavily suspecting you.

Ford
What's your beef, man? We're all supposed to be comrades here. Dismissing me as a spy before we have even the slightest scrap of evidence hurts the cause and makes you look bad.

[[While that is true, we don't have evidence at this point. However we DO have reads and as that is the best evidence we have we must use it as true until proven otherwise. That's what I'm doing anyway. Why in brackets? No idea.]]

Everyone: am I being paranoid or does what I've just outlined sound like a plausible scenario?

Plausible, but not likely.

[Tiruin]

[We have until February 16 to tally the votes, I think, if I didn't get GG's timer wrong.]


ToonyMan:

@Toony: So just because Nerjin picked the team mentioned, why are you against it? Have you a deep enough read of him to validate 'scum' in your eyes?

1.  It was RNG'd
2.  A spy would be nuts to organize a team with no spies in it

He linked to an RNG. Listed as stated in the OP. Either he rerolled it enough times to get a buddy in, or he's sincere. I'm leaning partly on the sincere in this option, as he used a third party tool to do his choosing for him.

Also, the second statement is up for fallibility. He could've organized a team with spies in it, but then they would've laid low just to put the assumption that he's clean - if we go by the "seemingly town" suggestion you added, it would've been Toaster (as I said, not lying here nor do I think Deathsword would be non-killing in that position).

I don't really like this though, I'd much prefer if the team we organize we actually have fairly confident town reads instead of putting people with suspicions in there.  If I were you Tiruin I would put myself and two people I could see not being spies.

So let's go on with the next team:

Tiruin
Toaster
Leafsnail

Also, a small hypothesis: 5 missions where one of them, the fourth, requires 2/3 to be scum to succeed and 1/3 to succeed (assuming they don't lay low). This is a non-NK game. We have 10 players. Assuming a 4/6 ratio (GG states generalities >_<), 4 - spy, 6 - town at best, 3/7 or even 5/5 at worst. The former is judged against the scumteam, and the latter against the town, but putting all pertinent probabilities in anyway.

There's 4 spies and 6 town.  GG has also said this, here.

*Tiruin uses normal forum format - checks only page 1 and 3 because those had GG's posts as far as memory serves.

Facepalm occurs as well as profuse amount of thanks.

Thanks for those who pointed it out >_<

Toaster

Tiruin:  Please tell me that's an error and those three are actually the list of people you'd never send on a mission.

In all seriousness, how is being sent on a team because they lack meta a good idea in any sense at all?  What are you smoking?

I don't smoke :/

And yes, I was checking on everyone's opinion of them. Lacking meta meaning that if there is a sabotage tonight - 2 or 1 spy, doesn't really matter - it would be easier to piece who did what, especially after what results we'll get.

So I guess you're against the composition of said team. Regardless, does my reason hold most of your choice to vote Yea or Nay? Or is there something with the pick that's wrong in your eyes?


Captain Ford

I have to say that is one of the unlikeliest teams I expected to see at this stage of the game.

Why?


PFP, will be back

[Nerjin]

Tiruin
Toaster
Leafsnail

I'd vote up.

Everyone on that team has read town to me so far. I suspect Leafsnail the most but maybe it's because he suspects me so harshly and is sort of rude.

[Leafsnail]

He linked to an RNG. Listed as stated in the OP. Either he rerolled it enough times to get a buddy in

Once.  5 times out of 6 you'd expect the number of times he'd have to roll to be once.

Even if you exclude scum-Nerjin from the roll (he didn't - he was on the list and he didn't eliminate himself, so he probably would have allowed a team with him on it) he'd still have a 16/21 chance (better than 3/4) of getting a mafia member into the team with one roll.

I have no objections to that team, though.

[zombie urist]

Meh. I'm still undecided whether nominating yourself is acceptable, but I think this team is ok.

[Dariush]

Swap LS and yourself out for anybody who isn't Toony (or Nerjin, for that matter), or else I'm downvoting.

Nerjin, you fucking scumass, respond when I ask you questions.

LS, in reply #64 you disagreed with self-nominating. What changed your mind?

[Leafsnail]

I alluded to it in post #64 - allowing self-nomination gives us better odds mathematically.  I thought I had already made a post about this but I mis-remembered.

Basically, a spy can put a team-member onto the team if he wants to with 100% certainty, even if we disallow self-nomination.    Whereas disallowing self-nomination hurts us when a rebel is picking a team (one rebel is excluded from the pick, so the odds become even worse - I make it 5/42 chance of picking an all-rebel team which is only slightly better than 1/9).

I decided I'd rather see relational tells from Nerjin since I didn't have much of a read on him at that point, but Tiruin appears reasonably town and honest about his reads so I'm prepared to allow his self-nomination.

[GlyphGryph]

Tiruin, I think it's about time to call for a vote, no?

[Nerjin]

I'm just saying that I found it odd that he didn't even wait for interactions. Just said "Wing it." as opposed to getting some reactions, seeing interactions, and THEN agreeing to go for it. We need to have SOME interaction before we just leap into a team. Maybe I read it wrong, but it set off some alarms for me.

What. What. WHAT. For fuck's fucking sake, you were the one who proposed a random team! Are you fucking kidding me?! How can you propose a random team and then consider people scummy for not 'waiting for SOME interaction before we just leap into a team'?!

Congratulations on pushing yourself from around 60% on my scale to 25% in two short lines. That's... an impressive feat, really.

Sort of off topic but it's odd how sometimes your rage brings me a sort of joy and other times it terrifies me to no end... Odd.

Anyway onto your questions. I am not kidding you.

Completely random, does not take any of the people who are WIFOMing even a little. There, that is the team I propose.

As I said when I rolled up the thing. I don't like being in positions of power at all. However at that point I had seen enough that I trusted those who were rolled enough to go on the mission. If anyone I didn't trust was on I would have voted no on it. [Not re-rollen though... Re-rolled? Words...]

The difference being that I had waited a while to get at least Some reads on people as opposed to stating out of the gate, and I'm paraphrasing here, "Let's just wing it."

Once again I am sorry about missing your question.

[ToonyMan]

Also, the second statement is up for fallibility. He could've organized a team with spies in it, but then they would've laid low just to put the assumption that he's clean

If the spies laylow on the first mission then they're making a really bad move.

I don't really like this though, I'd much prefer if the team we organize we actually have fairly confident town reads instead of putting people with suspicions in there.  If I were you Tiruin I would put myself and two people I could see not being spies.

So let's go on with the next team:
Tiruin
Toaster
Leafsnail

Fine, I'll up-vote this.

I decided I'd rather see relational tells from Nerjin since I didn't have much of a read on him at that point, but Tiruin appears reasonably town and honest about his reads so I'm prepared to allow his self-nomination.

Is that so...I will say I couldn't understand half of what he was saying, but he self-nominated and the other two picks I can agree with for now.

[GlyphGryph]

Tiruin, put your team in Red to initiate voting.

[Nerjin]

He lives in another time zone. He won't be on until later I don't think.

[Captain Ford]

Tiruin:

Captain Ford

I have to say that is one of the unlikeliest teams I expected to see at this stage of the game.

Why?

I explained why it wasn't a good setup right below the part you quoted. Two of the participants already have suspicions of the third, so no new information will be gained.


notquitethere:

Ford
What's your beef, man? We're all supposed to be comrades here. Dismissing me as a spy before we have even the slightest scrap of evidence hurts the cause and makes you look bad.

I explained my reasons quite clearly. And you are putting words in my mouth. I have never said anything more than I suspect you of being a spy for being careless and headstrong instead of carefully analyzing the situation. You haven't done anything different, so my opinion about you hasn't changed.

However, I'm thinking that as Nerjin, and to some extent Ford, have been tunnelling me so intently,

Tunneling? Are you serious? Perhaps you ought to look up the definition of that word.

I just went over all of our posts, and we rarely talk to or about you. Overreactions like these are one of the reasons you're scummy.


Nerjin:

At the time I was under the delusion that being an Organizer was a power role. Should've read more carefully.

Huh. You know, now that I take a close look at it, usually my role PMs include my rolename prominently in the content, usually in either red or green text. In this case, it was only listed in the subject line.

If I were to go by the most prominent text in my role PM, then my rolename would have been "De Facto". (Sidenote: I'm totally using that as my rolename from now on)
 
I'm totally not surprised that you completely failed to find your actual rolename. This is the first game I've played where it's only been listed in the subject line. Obviously GlyphGryph didn't think it was important either.


Leafsnail:

Oh so you thought you had a hidden power role that was not mentioned in your PM, or the OP.

Not exactly true. The Organizer is mentioned in the OP, and I don't doubt it was mentioned in his PM, given that he was the first organizer. His choice of words reveals that he wasn't talking about a "hidden" power role, rather that he mistakenly thought that the person who was organizing temporarily inherited a power role that enabled them to organize. Which is nuts, but not as nuts as what you're talking about.

For the reasons outlined above, I believe Nerjin's explanation is very plausible.

And I don't see what bearing it has on his alignment.


After thinking about it more, I don't think there's any benefit to forcing leaders to not self-nominate, even for the first mission. It hurts our chances of success, and it doesn't really give us any new information to work with. I'm beginning to think that the fewer the number of people involved, the more useful it will be for later analysis.


Tiruin: I like this team, actually. If the mission is sabotaged, the rebels on the team are in the best position to figure out who the saboteur is, and I think those players would be good ones to have investigating each other.

I've seen what I wanted to see from Leafsnail. I won't object to his presence on this mission.