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[TheDarkStar]

Well, at least I learned something from dying: Make better arguments and remove the scum-tells. Goodbye and good luck to all scum.

[Toaster]

Makeinu:  One nice thing about Paranormal games is the flavor is very consistent.  You can tell what faction did a kill by how the player died.  (Vigs and PGOs use guns, dopp kills leave a bloody mess and little to no body, and aliens use energy weapons and leave half-melted corpses.)  Also, if you're blocked by a Psychic Warden, the flavor will mention chains- things like that.

Now, with a player missing, you are correct that it's either an Xenozoologist or a Harvester.  If Caz comes back tomorrow, it's a Mind Stealer.  If not, either a Xenozoologist or an Organ Harvester.  We won't know that distinction until D3.  The Xenozoologist is more of an Outsider win condition, since it doesn't care about dopps or town winning.  That said, it's typically considered a bit pro-town since it wants to leave with two townies, a dopp, and an alien, which are typically anti-town- trading two townies for two anti-town players is a good trade.

The Mind Stealer is oddball and I don't think we've had one.  The Organ Harvester is clearly anti-town (and anti-dopp.)  Based on the low player count, I'd say the Xenozoologist is unlikely (but that's no guarantee.)

Oh wait, there's one more option- an Exterminator with Combat Camo.  I THINK the player is found dead the next day in that case.

As far as no kill, there are a few options:

1.  The dopp team targeted Caz.  When a player is abducted, all other actions fail on them.
2.  The dopp that used the kill was blocked.
3.  The dopp target was either protected or hit an alien shield.
4.  The dopp that used the kill was redirected (Mind Control Ray) back to another dopp- IIRC that causes them to not kill.  Or maybe that's only if redirected to self.
5.  The dopp team chose not to kill.


The top three options are the most likely.

I'm trying to suss the different factions, and it's easier to ask. Town (human), Aliens, Doppelgangers, I assume are all separate factions. Do the Aliens and the Doppelgangers normally work together, or in opposition, i.e., both are scum (I assume), but are they one faction or two?

If they're one, and we know from the only night "kill" that it was an Alien, that means Aliens replace humans as well? If they're two factions, then we're possibly not down three Town from start, we're down more, which tightens the odds a bit. Independents always do. Three Doppelgangers and #? Aliens?

We know three crew were replaced, from the OP. We don't know if one of those replaces was an Alien, or I don't anyway, or if there's a fourth or fifth crew "missing" as well, only we don't know because they weren't body replaced as the Doppelgangers do it.

Town and Dopps are just town and scum.  Each Alien has a different goal, but none of them are directly aligned with the dopp team.  (Survivors typically favor the scum team, since a win with them is faster.)

By the pod count, we know the scum team has three original members.  Aliens do not get counted by this, nor do Rogue Dopps.  All aliens have some sort of tech that makes them appear human during the day (this is flavor only.)


Does this clear things up?


(PS I know there's no content in this post)

[makeinu]

Well, I'm basing my inferance from previous knowledge.

Thanks. That's what I was looking for. Such inferences aren't necessarily perfect, but they're informative.

The separate factions work according to their goals--but it can be inferred that Dopps are one whole faction; Humans are one whole faction and Aliens work according to their role goal, and may be individualists or faction-aligned (in the case of an Exterminator + Exterminator Operative) but generally are third-party. Whether benevolent or malevolent is usually up to debate.

Okay. That's what I was assuming. Just wanted to sound-board my thought process.

And I'll try to explain the thing to Meph: When a player is abducted (and NOT killed), they don't roleflip. When they die, they roleflip. So we can easily infer that Caz is alive and will only flip if:
a. His organs are harvested and thus, he gets thrown away as darn insipid trash while we inspect the body and..well, it'll be (more likely than not) obvious via flavor.
b. The captor dies and he returns..which I guess won't be a flip.

This was also my thinking. So, either the Alien has to die, because Zenozoologist, or Caz comes back tomorrow(?) as vanilla whatever he was, because Mind Stealer.

This also makes me think only one alien, since, again, only one night action. Speculation: maybe the dopps targeted Caz as well? Since abductions precede kills...


PPE: ninja'd by Toaster. Very helpful meta-knowledge, thank you.

[makeinu]

Sorry, I'll stop spamming, but...

I meant to say:

So, either the Alien has to die, because Zenozoologist or Organ Harvester, or Caz comes back tomorrow(?) as vanilla whatever he was, because Mind Stealer.

[Toaster]

Right.


Or dead tomorrow because of Combat Camo, I think.

[makeinu]

Mind-fuck. Thanks for pointing THAT out.

[Jim Groovester]

The Xenozoologist abducts and permanently removes from play, if the target is a species it hasn't already collected. Could be that because, N1, obviously, no duplicates yet.

I doubt it's a Xenozoologist because oh dammit Toaster already explained all of this.

1.  The dopp team targeted Caz.  When a player is abducted, all other actions fail on them.
2.  The dopp that used the kill was blocked.
3.  The dopp target was either protected or hit an alien shield.
4.  The dopp that used the kill was redirected (Mind Control Ray) back to another dopp- IIRC that causes them to not kill.  Or maybe that's only if redirected to self.
5.  The dopp team chose not to kill.

It's also possible that Caz was performing the night kill, since abductions happen before night kills. I suppose that technically falls under category two.

...So we have a Harvester or Xenologist loose? Well, this just got interesting.

Yes, it has.

Is that all you're going to start the day with?

I note that you bussed TheDarkStar after a long day of voting makeinu. What's your opinion of him now, and who are your suspects?

Yay, we lynched correctly yesterday (at least, the four of you who voted DarkStar did)! And thanks for teaching me a scum-tell for new players.

So no dopp kill. Huh?

Meph: Do we find out what Caz's role or alignment was at all?

Supposedly it's a scumtell to be congratulatory about lynching scum, or celebrating the lack of a kill.

Whatcha think of that? And who are your suspects today?

Mephansteras, does Sinlessmoon require a prod or replacement? Just so it's clear, I'm not asking you to prod him, I'm asking if he needs one.

[Persus13]

Why're you happy?

This is the first game I've been in where scum got lynched D1, and I thought you guys were getting worked up about a new person. Were one step closer to victory and I have knew info on newby scumtells, something I was lacking earlier.

Next: Expound the bolded portion

No apparent Scum kill N1 is new for me (as in Supernatural I thought I had been targeted by the scum N1)

Supposedly it's a scumtell to be congratulatory about lynching scum, or celebrating the lack of a kill.

Whatcha think of that? And who are your suspects today?

I don't really care, seems like a perfectly reasonable thing for anyone to do.

My suspects are Tiruin (Only voted Max yesterday), Imp (seems odd, scumhunting Toaster for A JOKE, which is much easier to make than a WOT analysis post, and friendliness), and you (scummy feeling, not sure why). Caz also seems suspicious to me but I have no clue where he is. How about you?

[RangerCado]

Tiruin: I didn't have much time past that so it was just a quick thoughts post, nothing more.

Jim: Assumed guilty until proven innocent... okay, I can deal with this. Why would I make a mistake like that when Dark was going to be lynched anyway? Adding that last vote was me trying to prevent a last second tie if someone was planning it, however unlikely. I'm not stupid enough to make such an obvious bus if I were a dopp, and voting makeinu wasn't getting me anywhere, and my arguement against him wasn't holding anything with me. In the morning, I'll be taking a longer look at the previous posts and see if I can find any clues. Also, have things normalized enough in your life for you to be able to play fully now?

makeinu: Speculating on where the kill went isn't very productive... but I've done that plenty myself in previous games so I can't fault you for it. We will likely know Caz's fate tomorrow, so lets focus on this day. Also, do you have a suspect or two today?

Persus: Can you expound on why your suspicious of Imp more? Yes where the scum hunting started was odd, but we all have to start somewhere so I'm not sure where your reasoning is coming from. If you would be so kind as to explain?

In the morning, I search through to see if I can find any hints as to what Caz might be. If it IS an Organ Harvester, we would do well to know what we'll be dealing with. Night all.

[makeinu]

I note that you bussed TheDarkStar after a long day of voting makeinu. What's your opinion of him now, and who are your suspects?

I'm not sure in what sense you're using the term "bussed" here, Jim. I did vote for him while he was pursuing his blatantly obvious tactic of pushing for a role-claim, which semi-cemented my scumdar on him as a valid target, eclipsing the WIFOM feeling that I was reacting negatively because of OMGUS.

The only reason for that last post of the day was, well, Max had asked for a replacement, and he was already on my scum shortlist anyway. All in all, I'm happy with the day's turnout.

As for suspects, Caz was low on the shortlist, still is I suppose. Imp is long on verbiage, which is a personal scum-tell, though a weak one, and his list doesn't match mine, so he's low on that list as well, but on it. Max White (well, we shall see how his replacement picks up that and runs with it) is definitely on my list. Highest, right now, in fact, alongside one other I'm playing close to the chest for the moment.

And I'm with Persus here. Only once before have I seen a scum lynched on D1, rarely seen no scum kill on N1, never seen both happen in the same game, and I've never seen that particular scum-tell before either. So, yay! Party time! Who's got the cake?


PPE:

RangerCado: it's productive in that it helps me understand the specifics of the game, and get some confirmation my thinking isn't all left-field.

[Persus13]

Persus: Can you expound on why your suspicious of Imp more? Yes where the scum hunting started was odd, but we all have to start somewhere so I'm not sure where your reasoning is coming from. If you would be so kind as to explain?

Imp seems off to me. She was attacking Toaster for something that seemed completely odd to me. I understand getting annoyed about inactivity, especially from a very experienced player, but it is much easier to crack a joke than to scumhunt. I tend to get annoyed at people attacking others for RL issues as well, and that also played part of it. Imp just feels different this game as compared to the others I've played with her. I had a similar feeling at the beginning of Supernatural, but this time I think it's different.

Imp is long on verbiage

That's completely normal for Imp. In the last BM there was one of post of hers we called the Behemoth because it was gigantic.

[Mephansteras]

Mephansteras, does Sinlessmoon require a prod or replacement? Just so it's clear, I'm not asking you to prod him, I'm asking if he needs one.

Sinlessmoon contacted me during the night phase and said he didn't need to be replaced, so we're ok for now.

[makeinu]

Imp is long on verbiage

That's completely normal for Imp. In the last BM there was one of post of hers we called the Behemoth because it was gigantic.

I'm getting that overall impression. I'm quite capable of the impressive WoT, tl;dr, yawn-busters, myself, but in mafia, in general, I find that to be a good smokescreen. If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bullshit, as the saying goes.

[Jim Groovester]

How about you?

I'm still working on it, and I'll do a more thorough read of Day 1 sometime after my finals, but on quick skim RangerCado had a weak Day 1, so I'm somewhat suspicious of that. I'm also curious whether Sinlessmoon is doing some serious hardcore mega ultra lurking and getting away with it, and I suppose with nothing new from Max White my previous read on him still holds, i.e., somewhat suspicious.

Jim: Assumed guilty until proven innocent... okay, I can deal with this. Why would I make a mistake like that when Dark was going to be lynched anyway? Adding that last vote was me trying to prevent a last second tie if someone was planning it, however unlikely. I'm not stupid enough to make such an obvious bus if I were a dopp, and voting makeinu wasn't getting me anywhere, and my arguement against him wasn't holding anything with me. In the morning, I'll be taking a longer look at the previous posts and see if I can find any clues.

So your argument against you bussing TheDarkStar is not a flat out denial (the proper response) but that if you were a dopp bussing him like that would be too obvious, therefore you can't be a dopp because you know better. Do you know how terribly unconvincing arguments in that vein are?

I dunno, man. I was just seeing how you would react beforehand, but I'm starting to think there might be something to this.

Also, who said it was an obvious bus? I didn't. I guess it was something you were worrying about beforehand.

Also, have things normalized enough in your life for you to be able to play fully now?

Mostly. I've got one more day of purgatory finals before I'm freeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

I note that you bussed TheDarkStar after a long day of voting makeinu. What's your opinion of him now, and who are your suspects?

I'm not sure in what sense you're using the term "bussed" here, Jim.

Maybe you're not sure because this specific comment and question was directed to RangerCado, not you.

But thank you for your input. It is very much appreciated.

Mephansteras, does Sinlessmoon require a prod or replacement? Just so it's clear, I'm not asking you to prod him, I'm asking if he needs one.

Sinlessmoon contacted me during the night phase and said he didn't need to be replaced, so we're ok for now.

Then where the hell is he? It's like he's doing some serious hardcore mega ultra lurking and getting away with it!

Sinlessmoon, get your sorry ass in here or hang.

[makeinu]

I'm not sure in what sense you're using the term "bussed" here, Jim.

Maybe you're not sure because this specific comment and question was directed to RangerCado, not you.

*facepalms* Commas...