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Author Topic: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Game Over - Mafia Win!  (Read 37201 times)

dolores

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #75 on: December 19, 2019, 12:01:09 pm »

@dolores: there is nothing wrong with asking questions. I believe I mentioned that I trust FallacyofUrist because of the many questions.
Yeah, I can't read.
You can ignore that question.
Would saying you are baiting the night kill stop scum from killing you since they think you are bait?
Yeah, I'm baiting the nightkill by baiting the nightkill.
I don't think it's useful to talk about in the thead. It's WIFOM. At worst, it's WIFOM which should only register with scum, so you can think of it like reverse scum play where I'm trying to waste their time in their quicktopic by filling it with trash. I could say that the only reason you should be asking me about it in the thread is because you are scum; after all, no vig is ever going to shoot me.
It is true that I generally try to avoid the nightkill. All else being equal, it should depend on my role. But I think that I can do more work as a vanilla townie than most cops. In this game, I've got an extremely strong role that's of direct threat to the scum.
I need to deal with the kill in every game I'm in. Absent this, there's no reason I should ever survive to D2. Think of it like a variation on the 'Wuba alive by D3 rule', except my town game is way better than my scum game (and his town game lol) so I get a shorter leash, because nobody expects to be able to post some WIFOM about me being alive on D2 to get me lynched. The appropriate way to deal with the kill depends on the players on the scumteam, the possibilities of which can be considered by the players in the game. I don't think that going into D2 with the shadow of a lynch hanging over me is enough to stop most scumteams for targetting me in this game.
I accidentally reloaded over this post, so the tone is wierd in the rewriting. Whatever, that's your problem.
at this point, how are you feeling about the possibility of your being nightkilled (by the scum)? Is it going to be an extra big loss for the town, either due to your ability (as a player) or abilities (from your role)? Are you doing anything to bait out the kill or avoid it?
I intend to make it informative if I do get targeted. I'm establishing myself as dangerous. Dangerous to keep alive, dangerous to kill. Thus, whether or not I get killed will speak volumes about scum and how they deal with threats.
This is dumb
It's pure WIFOM. If you're going to base reasoning on nightkills at best you're breaking even with scum. Realistically, you're fighting a losing battle, and you're probably losing time. If scum are rolling dice, you're literally only wasting time. Nothing you can say about NK targets has any relevance to actual townyness/scumyness of players. This is like, what FoU thinks not checking your role PM is. See, no matter how little D1 could have to do with scumhunting if everyone brought an optimal scum game and didn't check their PM, you'd still lynch the most antitown player, if not anyone with an antitown role. That's progress, to some degree. It's the best you can get in the face of ignorant scum, I guess. It's D1. We're probably going to do that anyway, since TricMagic is here and Deus Asmoth isn't. But, like, damn dude. If I'm scum, why would I ever bother to play WIFOM with you? I can just roll dice and eliminate N1, as well as D1, from your ability to read scum!dolores. Then you get to waste time on D2 by proxy, and then I can lambast you for it.
There is no information to be obtained from scumkills.
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dolores

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #76 on: December 19, 2019, 05:08:47 pm »

out lol
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Naturegirl1999

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #77 on: December 19, 2019, 05:35:15 pm »

out lol
If sincere, why are you out?
If not sincere, why say you’re out when you’re not?
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #78 on: December 19, 2019, 09:09:13 pm »

FOU
If you are not killed by Day 2, my suspicion would be either that you are mafia, you correctly planned for a town player to protect you, or the scum are leaving you alive as a risky gambit.
You've listed every possible reason for why Superdorf might survive the night here. Which would you think would be the most likely?


Naturegirl1999:
I haven't read my role PM yet. Why do you think that is?
Not reading your role PM immediately is an anti-town move.

Primarily because:
1) It casts doubt into the minds of anyone attempting to get a read on you. In fact it makes it impossible to get a true read, as you are not acting according to what your role is.
2) It taints the reads of people who try to get a read on you later, as they will take into account the portion of time where you had not looked at your PM. Even if they attempt to ignore it, their subconscious read on you will be influenced by what they've already seen of you.
Why would your read of ICT be influenced by his behaviour from when he claims he doesn't know what team he's playing for any more than it would be by his behaviour outside this game?

dolores
Not reading your role PM immediately is an anti-town move.

Primarily because:
1) It casts doubt into the minds of anyone attempting to get a read on you. In fact it makes it impossible to get a true read, as you are not acting according to what your role is.
2) It taints the reads of people who try to get a read on you later, as they will take into account the portion of time where you had not looked at your PM. Even if they attempt to ignore it, their subconscious read on you will be influenced by what they've already seen of you.
Alright, I'll bite.
I haven't read my role PM. There you go. I'm lying, right? You'll never know. Whether or not I tell you if I've read my role PM has no bearing on whether or not I tell you I have. Okay, so I'm not perfect: if I don't read my PM, I'm less likely to comment on whether or not I've read it.
1) Is bullshit, because a player who hasn't read their role PM is always town, like a serial killer is town. They're not on a team. That's super easy to read. They've got literally no mechanical information (that's not public), so they're supremely able to project their ignorance. It makes it hard to get a persistently accurate read, like in a game driven primarily by cult activity, sure. This works against the interests of the town if you're not town. But then you're not town, so that's good. If you are town, why not be town? It doesn't make a difference to how you'll play.
2) Which is, again, strictly in his favor, because having not read your PM is the best position to be in re: looking like town, which is strictly in your favor if he's town and you're also town.
Your response for part 2 here doesn't make much sense to me, mostly because I don't agree with FOU's original assertion for it. Not having read your role can't make you look like town since you don't know what side you're actually on, so ICT's day 1 play would be a null tell at best.

Superdorf
Deus Asmoth: If you could learn the role of one player right now, who would you choose? Why?
IcyTea, because someone might as well know what his role is if it isn't going to be him.

dolores again
Deus Asmoth: activity is the best measure of townyness. You've a history of relative inactivity as scum. How will you convince me you're town in this game?
No it isn't, and I'm pretty sure I have a history of relative inactivity in general. I don't really intend to do anything to convince you I'm town other than what I normally do.

Persus
Deus Asmoth: Census or random inspect, which would you rather have?
Random, assuming I know who it is I inspected.

IcyTea
Deus Asmoth:
If you were a dayvig, what would be the least scummy statement one could make that would make you shoot them immediately regardless of past scumminess or lack thereof?
It would really depend on the relative scumminess of all the other players in the game, but in a vacuum, asking someone to repeat a question instead of just finding it in the thread has been a surprisingly consistent scum tell in my experience, so I guess that.

If I were to shoot someone right now, who do you think it should be?
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Persus13

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #79 on: December 19, 2019, 10:28:15 pm »

Was planning on getting in a post today, but that didn't happen, so I'll try to get a post in tomorrow.

Good to see you've finally joined us DA. Thoughts on the game so far?
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Shadowclaw777

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #80 on: December 19, 2019, 10:46:10 pm »

Activity really shouldn’t determine whether your town or a mafioso I feel like lol, I mean sure their are things that people have done that seems suspect when looked at and you can start, but how is it the benefit to the scum to not be inactive if anything the people doing excessive questions and statements are trying to possibly cover the fact their mafia by making everyone think their in charge so they couldn’t possible be scum.
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Persus13

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #81 on: December 19, 2019, 11:28:52 pm »

Inactivity is a null tell most of the time, but one strategy scum can do is be quiet and not super active to avoid drawing attention to themselves, and let town attack town. This is called lurking. The strategy you mention is definitely one I've seen deployed before, but lurking is also something I've seen used effectively. The main issue with lurking is that it doesn't make for a fun game.
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Superdorf

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #82 on: December 20, 2019, 12:12:54 am »

Aw man, we lost dolores  :-\

Shadowclaw777: Clarify for me: are you just pontificating on possible mafia strategies, or do you in fact think the more talkative of us are likely scum?

notquitethere: Could we get a votecount please?



Naturegirl1999
Newness could also be a cover for scum, in my first game I was scum. I played like a bad town player who didn’t know what they were doing so they thought I was town. Perhaps Shadowclaw is using a similar strategy?
Not all that relevant except as a meta thing, but I'm curious now. This "bad play" of yours from last game: was it deliberate?  :o


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IcyTea31

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #83 on: December 20, 2019, 04:16:09 am »

Superdorf

I got a bad feeling earlier from dolores pointing you as a town read. I looked back, and it looks like in this post you copied several of dolores' arguments and have been buddying to them.

Is that a response or an accusation?
Clarify for me please: is this an answer or an accusation?

let's do our best to optimize our chances by finding which players we probably shouldn't lynch, and more to the point, which ones we definitely should.
Random lynching is indeed counterproductive for us. We're not doing that. We are using our voices to generate as much relevant material as possible, and we are assessing the voice of each player to determine their motives in speaking.

Persus13: you've voted someone who you've not asked any questions to, and who has asked you unanswered relevant questions.
Persus13: I need words from you. Is IcyTea scum? If so, why?

I once vindicated you as obvtown by noting that you clearly weren't being coached, but this time it looks like someone is helping you. In this post and this post, you express uncertainty about your play, but then in the post quoted above, you suddenly show chutzpah. What changed?



If I were to shoot someone right now, who do you think it should be?
TricMagic, but mostly for meta reasons. He finds the time to post thousands of words in other forum games, but only a few cryptic lines of nonsense in Mafia which only serve to confuse and frustrate other players. Even if town, his playstyle is anti-town.

Who would be your choice for the same question?



the people doing excessive questions and statements are trying to possibly cover the fact their mafia
Power wolves are less dangerous than lurkers, for the simple reason that you can talk to them to ascertain alignment. The way to avoid being misled by a power wolf is to make sure that the reason you want to lynch someone is your own, and that you're not blindly following someone else.

Who do you believe is the most scummy right now, if you had to ignore everything anyone else has said about their scumminess or townishness?
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Superdorf

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #84 on: December 20, 2019, 07:46:54 am »

First, let me just say that this

Is that a response or an accusation?
Clarify for me please: is this an answer or an accusation?

was an accident. As I said earlier--

Is that a response or an accusation?

I don't want to enter N1 without knowing your alignment. Why do you seem content to do the reverse?
It's an observation which dodges the question without answering it.

ignore my last question to you please-- I missed this in my evening thread-trawling.   ::)

--I didn't see dolores ask that question in my read-through that day.

But... yes, now you point it out I do see the similarities in our action. I've an unfortunate habit in these games of picking up on somebody else's reasoning-- whether consciously or not-- and using it as a basis for my own work. I did so with Nirur Torir, I did so with NJW2000; both times I came out the worse for it. (Town still won those games, mind! Just, maybe not so much by my contributions.)

Yes, Ι'm showing "chutzpah". I'm faking it. I don't actually know what I'm doing, but I have this notion that I'm supposed to act like I know what I'm doing so's to look intimidating and pressure people, so I try to bluster. I'm not great at it, but I try to bluster! Does it help? I dunno.

If I'm not asking for help so much this game, it's 'cos I'm hoping I'll be a little more comfortable with the structure of the game this time 'round anyway. Maybe I lose that noobtown shine in the process, but... I was going to have to at some point, no?



More questions from me later. This post was written in haste; I've a very very busy day ahead of me.
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #85 on: December 20, 2019, 08:46:18 am »

Posting on lunch, so it'll be brief.

IcyTea
TricMagic, but mostly for meta reasons. He finds the time to post thousands of words in other forum games, but only a few cryptic lines of nonsense in Mafia which only serve to confuse and frustrate other players. Even if town, his playstyle is anti-town.

Who would be your choice for the same question?

I think Tric wouldn't be a bad choice, but I'd probably shoot dolores. Partially to save waiting for a replacement, but also because it feels like they did a lot of talking about how valuable they are to the town alive and how much worse their scum game is, which gives me a few alarm bells. I also felt like their initial RVS question to me was strangely leading and based on misinformation.

Persus
Was planning on getting in a post today, but that didn't happen, so I'll try to get a post in tomorrow.

Good to see you've finally joined us DA. Thoughts on the game so far?
There's a lot of posting, which is nice. I wish I hadn't missed it. I'll admit that I've only skimmed that parts with the AtE discussion so far, so I need to read over that. I'm inclined to think that Superdorf is town based on willingness to share information.

Shadowclaw: is there anyone you think is scum right now or are you waiting to go along with a group consensus on who to lynch?
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Naturegirl1999

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #86 on: December 20, 2019, 08:59:15 am »

Aw man, we lost dolores  :-\

Shadowclaw777: Clarify for me: are you just pontificating on possible mafia strategies, or do you in fact think the more talkative of us are likely scum?

notquitethere: Could we get a votecount please?



Naturegirl1999
Newness could also be a cover for scum, in my first game I was scum. I played like a bad town player who didn’t know what they were doing so they thought I was town. Perhaps Shadowclaw is using a similar strategy?
Not all that relevant except as a meta thing, but I'm curious now. This "bad play" of yours from last game: was it deliberate?  :o


The first game I played I was scum, it was a mix of being deliberately bad and actually not knowing what I was doing. The 2nd game I played I was Town. Because my only experience from last game was being scum, I had not a good idea of how to be Town, so in the previous game I played, which you moderated, the bad play wasn’t deliberate, but in the first game I played, moderated by IcyTea31, it was deliberate
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dolores

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #87 on: December 20, 2019, 11:04:44 am »

I don't normally like posting in a thread after I've gone out, for a number of reasons, including the fact that it's super rude to the replacement, but with the real chance that there'll be no replacement and the fact that I've got a bit longer to post than i was anticipating (I didn't think I'd be able to be active at this time but I've got ~5hrs).
Most places don't allow it, actually, but what are you gonna do, ban me? I don't give a fuck.

If sincere, why are you out?
If not sincere, why say you’re out when you’re not?
Y-you can't post out and not be out.
You're not entitled to know why people go out. You can decide whether or not it's in good faith on your own, but imo it's pretty obvious that going out is against my team's interests no matter my alignment. I'm by far the least likely to get lynched or killed in this game.
Also I shouldn't be posting in the thread since I'm not playing, so you're addresing questions to someone outside of the thread who can't reply within it. That's pretty rude and the main reason there's not some character-limit spoiler of my off-topic discussion with Persus.
Incidentally, it's "out lol" because it's funny to me that I had to go out after waiting several months on a forum with literally 0 activity for this game.

Your response for part 2 here doesn't make much sense to me, mostly because I don't agree with FOU's original assertion for it. Not having read your role can't make you look like town since you don't know what side you're actually on, so ICT's day 1 play would be a null tell at best.
It blows my mind that you can not get this. How, exactly, do you plan to distinguish a vanilla townie from a player who doesn't know their role? Outside of open/semiopen setups where knowing you're a vanilla townie tells you whether or not other players could have that vanilla townie slot (rarely relevant D1), they'll play exactly the same. I guess the vanilla townie knows exactly how many of the other players are scum if the size of the scum team is known, while the no-pm player doesn't know whether or not they're taking up one of those slots, but if anything that's more likely to get you townread. Ignorance, and anticipation of ignorance, is the number one marker of town. Why do you think we lynch powerroles? They know more than the average townie should.
Deus Asmoth: activity is the best measure of townyness. You've a history of relative inactivity as scum. How will you convince me you're town in this game?
No it isn't, and I'm pretty sure I have a history of relative inactivity in general. I don't really intend to do anything to convince you I'm town other than what I normally do.
Besides the fact that there's more anecdotal evidence of this than literally any other claim that has ever been made about tells/slips in mafia, it's also obvious from first principles. Town players can optimize their play for maximum volume of work without reducing their ability to be townread 'per unit work', whereas scum can't because they can't write stream-of-consicousness like town can.This will always be true and will always be what matters. Sure, relative to other players activity might not mean much if you're physically or psychologically unable (or unwilling) to devote more than a given amount of time or can't produce as much work per unit time as another player, but activity relative to a given player is always relevant and you, in particular, have given no reason why your established metagame can't be used to evaluate you without at least relatively high efficacy.

Activity really shouldn’t determine whether your town or a mafioso I feel like lol, I mean sure their are things that people have done that seems suspect when looked at and you can start, but how is it the benefit to the scum to not be inactive if anything the people doing excessive questions and statements are trying to possibly cover the fact their mafia by making everyone think their in charge so they couldn’t possible be scum.
If you really want evidence, find somewhere like this forum or wherever which automatically records games and read every game and evaluate for yourself the relative activity of town to scum.
It's also the first thing talked about here. NQT, Jim, Webadict and Toaster are the only players who know their dicks from their assholes posting in 2013 in that thread, and you can see what they say about the theory.
But like I've said about, it's able to be shown through first principles if the town players are attempting (regardless of competance) to play optimally and have a known meta.

Inactivity is a null tell most of the time, but one strategy scum can do is be quiet and not super active to avoid drawing attention to themselves, and let town attack town. This is called lurking.
This is literally all scum can ever do, which is why the opposite is a towntell. Any argument a townie develops against another townie can always make the attacker look townier than the attack can make the other townie look scummy, if both townies are playing authentically. That's always able to be compared favorably to not posting, which the scum are doing in this scenario.
The strategy you mention is definitely one I've seen deployed before, but lurking is also something I've seen used effectively. The main issue with lurking is that it doesn't make for a fun game.
Voting people for metadrama outside of the thread also doesn't make for a fun game, but it doesn't mean you don't do it.
When are you going to start to develop a case for lynching the person you're voting?
For reference, every time I engage in this metagame discussion about the evils of inactivity it strengthens my case on TricMagic's one post and literally zero content.

I'm reading Superdorf's old games for reference now, and town!Superdorf was way more aggressive than
Spoiler: this (click to show/hide)
In both PHM2 and VTM. It's a really scummy response to that particular type of pressure.
Oh wait nevermind
Spoiler: I'm wrong (click to show/hide)
This pattern of behavior is exactly what he did in the previous two D1's where he was town. It's not optimal. There should be no post defending his behavior, he should just keep producing content and tell ICT to go fuck himself for giving you shit for actually posting in an openly pro-town manner. He knows this and if Superdorf continues to defend himself instead of follow cases, he'll look and be scummy and if he goes back to following content, there'll not be any opportunity to lynch him. I don't like the change in content with my going out (and use of that fact is another reason it's verbotten to post after going out, this is literally cheating), especially since it's a change in content away from what I'm looking for and I won't be able to follow up on that (and his anticipated subsequent flip-flop after this post) in my abscence.

I think Tric wouldn't be a bad choice, but I'd probably shoot dolores. Partially to save waiting for a replacement, but also because it feels like they did a lot of talking about how valuable they are to the town alive and how much worse their scum game is, which gives me a few alarm bells. I also felt like their initial RVS question to me was strangely leading and based on misinformation.
Obviously it's leading, I already anticipated having to lynch scum!DA based on his inactivity, and that's a pain to do D1 without setting up for it from the start of RVS.
It's definitely not based on misinfo lol, the fact that you keep claiming this is further sign that you're trying to deny it because it is an accurate scumtell that will be used on you in this game.

Naturegrill2000: why are you still fielding questions without any questions of your own? I'm really not down with your passivity and lack of apparent desire to know more about the roles and alignment of other players. If TricMagic had posted literally anything, I'd be voting you now.
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IcyTea31

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #88 on: December 20, 2019, 11:59:39 am »

Whoever replaces dolores is town. I estimated that a decent bait directed against their previous ideas might draw them to post despite being out, if and only if they had the investment in the game common to townies.

My case against Superdorf is indeed weak, though I still do want the promised followup response to it. However, sometimes a weak case on someone is just what it takes to provoke someone else the reveal their alignment. That is how emotional manipulation works in action.
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IcyTea31

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Day 1 - Hammerings to Continue Until Morale Improves
« Reply #89 on: December 20, 2019, 12:04:59 pm »

I also felt like their initial RVS question to me was strangely leading and based on misinformation.

I'm inclined to think that Superdorf is town based on willingness to share information.
A personal attack is good provocation for an RVS question, though it has risks. What part of the question is misinformed?

Is there any reason scum!Superdorf wouldn't share the same information?
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