Bay 12 Games Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  
Pages: 1 ... 59 60 [61] 62 63 ... 115

Author Topic: Supernatural 10 - Game Over!  (Read 88288 times)

webadict

  • Bay Watcher
  • Former King of the Mafia
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #900 on: March 03, 2021, 04:45:12 pm »

This is just Day 2. I can do a combination Day 1, Day 2.
Logged

webadict

  • Bay Watcher
  • Former King of the Mafia
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #901 on: March 03, 2021, 04:45:40 pm »

But, I have to manually copy it over because it's over the character limit.
Logged

Toaster

  • Bay Watcher
  • Appliance
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #902 on: March 03, 2021, 04:45:52 pm »

No shit?  I don't trust Caz but I commend him for trying.
Logged
HMR stands for Hazardous Materials Requisition, not Horrible Massive Ruination, though I can understand how one could get confused.
God help us if we have to agree on pizza toppings at some point. There will be no survivors.

ToonyMan

  • Bay Watcher
  • Danger Magnet
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #903 on: March 03, 2021, 04:46:30 pm »

Honestly now that the Lucky bandwagon has formed it's bothering me and Vector is right that a starting team of Vector and Lucky doesn't make sense...I just want Lucky to be here...

I said I wanted to do a D1 analysis to find the most likely initial scum so that's what I'm doing right now.
Logged

4maskwolf

  • Bay Watcher
  • 4mask always angle, do figure theirs!
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #904 on: March 03, 2021, 04:48:01 pm »

I suppose I'll reiterate my case on Lucky one last time.

If Lucky was converted by a charismatic cultist, today is MYLO unless Blue revived as an SK.

The very existence of that possibility means we have to play like we're in MYLO to avoid an instant-loss.

The most reliable way to head off this scenario is to launch Lucky.

Thus, Lucky must die to avoid losing to the worst case scenario.

QED

Vector

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #905 on: March 03, 2021, 04:51:12 pm »

OK, I reread everything. I was paying particular attention to ICT, NQT, Toony, and Juicebox/Caz.

The core of my opinion on NQT was as follows:
- NQT doing mechanical analysis does not mean that NQT is town. It just means that NQT is NQT.
- NQT's forms of mechanical analysis from this game are time-consuming but are not particularly yielding major insights.
--- For example: we can all figure out who has been most and least active. Claiming that those who bounce around are town while those who focus down are scum misses the strong tell of "active-lurking without making a case/looking for easy pickings."
- As a further point, if NQT had started the game as solo converter, they would have a very strong incentive to: put in a lot of effort to "generate information" (it's exciting to have that solo scum responsibility! go go go scumteam!!) while not actually producing anything.
- HOWEVER, when I looked back at the game, NQT had a lot of side points that were not mechanically oriented. They were not his biggest posts, but they were active and entailed normal scumhunting.
- NQT also had a strong towntell: responding actively in thread as players post and regularly adjusting reads.
- NQT has also been a lot more interested in clearing a broad spread of players as town than I would expect to fit within a scum!NQT wincon.
==== With that said, there were still a few things that stood out to me:
---- defensiveness
---- a lot of, not just mechanical focus, but scumteam composition focus. This stood out to me in Skynet. However, if cult, the ongoing monitoring of the scum composition possibilities early D1 would be a lot of effort for a fundamentally anti-wincon outcome. Via Occam's razor, I'm not seeing it.
---- If NQT were scum, we should expect to see: 1. fakeclaim breadcrumbing 2. data analysis with "bent" outcomes: looking into the method shows clear bias in its application. 3. virtually no behavioral analysis. I haven't seen any of that so far.
---- I believe I could be being snowed, but I'm inclined to look here Tomorrow at earliest without strong further evidence.


I was checking Toony for consistency:
- The claim that LO is scum being coached starts D1.
- Toony's initial claim was that NQT was coaching the owl.
- Today, Toony's claim is that I have been coaching the owl.
- This shift appears to happen organically in a way that I think would be difficult to fake. They have been reactionary and driven some really bad cases on D2, but after D1 I can see things from their perspective.
- I would expect some kind of shift if Toony had been converted, whether in opinions or targets or "energy," and I'm not seeing it. I think scum!Toony would be more careful about logical consistency.

ICT has a lot of interesting posts that don't necessarily go anywhere, but are heavily invested in getting information in unorthodox behavioral ways. I don't like how much they've been on the sidelines this game, but I felt like they were advancing the gamestate, as it were, both Yesterday and Today.

Regarding Caz/Juicebox:
- Juicebox -- lurking, but more importantly suddenly showed up at the EOD CFD to defend self. NQT notices that no one moved to protect Juicebox during the CFD.
- This is our second dreamwalker claim.
- Caz is mostly being reactive in-thread and had the world's sloppiest readslist, which was nothing but hot air, despite having watched the game since D1.
- I still feel iffy on this. I think this target is a bit too easy.


Persus13:

I'm certain its not NQT

Wait, why's that?




Final thoughts:
- Not to outguess the mod, but for balance, if Tric is a Knight it would make sense for us to have something on hand with an NK.
- I think that: people are spinning up a bunch of WIFOM about the vets right now because 1. we really don't want to have a cult, especially 2. we don't want the cult to have converted one of the "confirmed" vets, and additionally 3. the newer crew has been asking for replaces and self-voting right and left.
- If Toaster rolled conventional scum, I could see him not NKing in order to push the cult narrative. See his start-of-day post; and he has, I feel, the most experience with this setup. It's a very viable strategy for him.
- Also, Toaster was the one who started the push to focus on the worst-case vampire lord scenario, which has left people looking for a converter from D1 (i.e. not interacting much with Today) and additionally running our pool of strongest vets ragged as a group of possible conversion targets.
- Toaster has been on the side for most of today. I know that he's busy. So am I. But the point is more: I'm not seeing the gamestate advancing much from their hunting today.
- I'm feeling Jim as the best conversion target from our pool of strong players at this point, if we do have a converter. Third on the bandwagon, as others have noted, is not a good look. I also trust Jim to try to change up his playstyle since BYOR15.
- I'm feeling Webadict as the Devil. Web's "NQT has massive scum equity" without much backing it up pings me wrong and I still don't like the early D1 play. I could also see Web going for Lucky's soul. Feels very Web.


Anyway, my probably-final vote for Today is on Toaster. I've been having trouble sleeping lately and have a lot of HW to catch up on. Sorry I couldn't get the big post out sooner.

PS: To those who think LuckyOwl was converted, I'm going to ask you to think again about which player would go for the BK-LO double-convert possibility. What would their mindset be? What would they be expecting to gain? This isn't just a self-defense: I don't think we should chop LO today. This fundamentally doesn't make sense (to me) as a scum strat.
Logged
"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

Vector

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #906 on: March 03, 2021, 04:52:30 pm »

Oh Toony, why are you doing this. You had so much townequity left, then you do this. As is, voting thirdparty gets us no closer to lynching scum, and Lucky needs to go..

Ugh, Ninja'ed, but: what's this about, Tric? Why are you convinced NQT is 3rd party?
Logged
"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

ToonyMan

  • Bay Watcher
  • Danger Magnet
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #907 on: March 03, 2021, 04:53:09 pm »

4maskwolf and Blue are going to support the Lucky lynch because they're claimed survivors.

Luckyowl is self-voting.

I'm me.

That leaves NQT and Tric as the weird people voting Lucky.



I suppose I'll reiterate my case on Lucky one last time.
If Lucky was converted by a charismatic cultist, today is MYLO unless Blue revived as an SK.
The very existence of that possibility means we have to play like we're in MYLO to avoid an instant-loss.
The most reliable way to head off this scenario is to launch Lucky.
Thus, Lucky must die to avoid losing to the worst case scenario.
QED
It's a tough choice for me.
Logged

TricMagic

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #908 on: March 03, 2021, 04:57:16 pm »

I don't think NQT is the converter.


Tricmagic:
NQT lol


Oh Toony, why are you doing this. You had so much townequity left, then you do this. As is, voting thirdparty gets us no closer to lynching scum, and Lucky needs to go..

Are you saying NQT is third party?

I'm saying it wouldn't surprise me if one of the four of you were third-party.

Logged

TricMagic

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #909 on: March 03, 2021, 04:59:35 pm »

As a question, what is the possibility that LO started as scum? He doesn't need to be converted if he was already part of the scum team.
Logged

notquitethere

  • Bay Watcher
  • PIRATE
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #910 on: March 03, 2021, 05:00:32 pm »

Will LuckyOwl sneak into the thread at the last moment and place a real vote?



4mask, I know you've explained the maths before, but I'm trying to work through it. I thought conversion happened after raising, so Lucky being converted is no worse than if anyone else was converted.

Worst Case Scenario
13 players
3 initial scum + 1 convert = 4
Blu who maybe was raised as scum due to incredible bad luck or maybe is third party = 1
1 third party who says he'll side with scum if they out themselves = 1
1 devil? (a scum!Lucky would lie about this, no?)
6 town players

Town mislynch, then one dies in the night, leaving worst case:

4 town, 5 scum (inc Blu), 2 possibly treacherous 3rd parties = Game over

So, by the worst case scenario, we need to hit scum today regardless. But if someone else was converted we could still be in worst case scenario land, no? Isn't this worst case scenario thinking an argument for launching Blu instead?

ppe: bunch of stuff, will get to
Logged

TricMagic

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #911 on: March 03, 2021, 05:02:22 pm »

Oh Toony, why are you doing this. You had so much townequity left, then you do this. As is, voting thirdparty gets us no closer to lynching scum, and Lucky needs to go..

Ugh, Ninja'ed, but: what's this about, Tric? Why are you convinced NQT is 3rd party?

One note about NQT is that he could be the Devil, playing the long game with normal town moves, but not managing it. They want to find scum and make deals. But something simular could apply to Jim. Or Icytea, or Toaster. I don't think web is a Devil though.
Logged

TricMagic

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #912 on: March 03, 2021, 05:04:04 pm »

Is this shift occurring because of the whole devil thing? If NQT is lynched and flips as such, that says a lot about the ones pushing it.
Logged

4maskwolf

  • Bay Watcher
  • 4mask always angle, do figure theirs!
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #913 on: March 03, 2021, 05:04:48 pm »

Conversion happens before raising, it was literally in the first few posts of D2 due to Toaster asking about it.

In the scenario, today we're looking at 6 v 5 v 2 or 6 v 4 v 3. Devil needs game to go longer so they always townside, so 7 v 5 v 1 or 7 v 4 v 2. ML today, kill overnight, 5 v 5 v 1 or 5 v 4 v 2. In both scenarios the survivor(s) can be bullied into voting with scum, giving them a voting edge and guaranteeing their victory.

And no, it's not the same in all scenarios because the odds of blue coming back as a wolf from a townie revive are... low. So low it's never been seen in all Supernaturals. We didn't even know that was possible until Meph said so this game and even so... eh. I'm not going to play around the possibility.

4maskwolf

  • Bay Watcher
  • 4mask always angle, do figure theirs!
    • View Profile
Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #914 on: March 03, 2021, 05:05:09 pm »

Is this shift occurring because of the whole devil thing? If NQT is lynched and flips as such, that says a lot about the ones pushing it.
Nobody but you believes NQT to be the devil.

Thread consensus devil is Icy AFAIK.
Pages: 1 ... 59 60 [61] 62 63 ... 115