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[FallacyofUrist]

I finished a good draft for the fourth setup, but I remembered that rushing the design was what led to the mess that was Round 3, so I decided to take an extra day to fine-tune things.

[EuchreJack]

Sounds like a good idea.

[FallacyofUrist]

Round 4 begins!


It was daytime, but the curtains were thick and heavy - and splattered with old, dead blood. Attempts to move them aside could only be partially successful at best. Someone ignited an old lantern to illuminate the room. Tension bloomed.

The fridge and pantry were nearly empty. Quickly, a rationing system was developed to ensure there would be enough to eat.

A great grandfather clock ticked and rocked and marched on. It cast a dark shadow over the room.

Some glinting of the limited light made the voting board seem to glow a dim red.

Toonyman (0):
Roden (0):
TricMagic (0):
EuchreJack (0):
NJW2000 (0):
Vector (0):
webadict (0):
Maximum Spin (0):

No Execution (0):
Not Voting (8): ToonyMan, Roden, TricMagic, EuchreJack, NJW2000, Vector, webadict, Maximum Spin
5 to hammer.

Day 1 has begun, and will end at 1 AM, Tuesday, Central/Forum time. Votes or unvotes that happen after that point will not be counted, to be completely clear. This is around 48 hours from now. Hammers are still in effect.

[ToonyMan]

It's NJW and Max's turn to lose as mafia.

I think this game will have exactly two mafia if I can read FoU correctly. I don't think we would get an ally again this round since FoU would try to overcorrect since they have stated they weren't happy with last game's setup. So I will work under this assumption for the time being.

Meanwhile it's obvious NJW and Max are mafia. I don't think you could argue otherwise. FoU has been very deliberately rolling alignments on us players. What are the chances that the players that hadn't rolled mafia yet are the only ones that get mafia in these rounds? Somebody run the numbers on this as it's pretty obvious I'm right.

[EuchreJack]

I don't think both would be the mafia team, although I think there is one mafia in NJW and Max.

I'll just ignore any "but you said that was bad logic last game!", since you were lying mafia scum last game.

Based upon last game, probing Max would be useless.  NJW hasn't "earned" a second vote yet.

@Roden: Your thoughts declaring roles?

[Maximum Spin]

This is only my second game, so it's not necessarily unexpected that I'm still town. In a sense, I'm sharing a slot with webadict, and he was just mafia-adjacent, so.

I could believe it was NJW, but I need a better reason than "assume a defective RNG". You don't necessarily have to set the world on fire to get me to vote, but this doesn't even start a flame in my heart.

[EuchreJack]

@Maximum Spin: What are your thoughts on Toonyman's first post?

[Maximum Spin]

@Maximum Spin: What are your thoughts on Toonyman's first post?

I don't think Toonyman is really that dumb, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's mafia. It's not a good first-post look, though.

EuchreJack, what do you think of TricMagic's first post? Try to be as specific as possible.

[NJW2000]

-

Good stuff Toony. The chance of the roles being assigned exactly as they were in the last three games is already 1/(7!)(7!)(8!), in other words 0.000000000097638%, so your case looks pretty watertight already. More seriously, I know what this play is and I don't like engaging with it.

-

This is bad logic, and you were right to say so last game. I see your point about the probing Max thing, in that you can't really expect to read someone whose town game is so deeply scum-sided, but generally speaking I don't like excuses for not scumhunting people, Jack. If you think one of Max and I are scum, you should at least be asking me questions.



Ok, let's try and discuss something that isn't just the gambler's fallacy. Deep breaths.

Vector: Assuming there are two mafia, rather than a mafia and a mafia-ally like last game, how much of a difference do you think coordination during the day will make? In a game as chaotic as these have been, do you think they'd have a chance at controlling the flow of play and the narrative?

Roden: How confident do you feel that you can recognise Toony's scum play after the last game?

Webadict: How are you planning to take advantage of the fact that half the players here are given to semi-truthfully roleclaiming almost immediately D1 come hell or high water?

TricMagic: do you think scum will be looking to nolynch today? Why/why not?

MaximumSpin: Why ask questions about a post that hasn't happened yet?

[Roden]

I'm assuming Toony is making a play here, I don't take him to be the type use RNG as an actual case against somebody. Toony, what's your role?

@Roden: Your thoughts declaring roles?

It's been a consistently pro town game winning strategy to claim roles or at least half claim, mafia doesn't really get much wiggle room. Do you feel hesitant to claim this time?

I'm a Delayer btw.

Roden: How confident do you feel that you can recognise Toony's scum play after the last game?

I don't feel confident at all lol. His scum play doesn't really seem that different to his town play, even his tone read the same to me until the endgame. He's really good at flying under the radar especially early on, so early pressure on him honestly might be a good idea from now on.

I did originally want to poke Tric but I'm fine seeing how Toony reacts to pressure.

[EuchreJack]

@Maximum Spin: What are your thoughts on Toonyman's first post?

I don't think Toonyman is really that dumb, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's mafia. It's not a good first-post look, though.

EuchreJack, what do you think of TricMagic's first post? Try to be as specific as possible.

TricMagic has not posted yet in this game, so I can't answer that.  Did you by any chance mean Toonyman?

-

This is bad logic, and you were right to say so last game. I see your point about the probing Max thing, in that you can't really expect to read someone whose town game is so deeply scum-sided, but generally speaking I don't like excuses for not scumhunting people, Jack. If you think one of Max and I are scum, you should at least be asking me questions.

I was waiting for you to post something upon which I could formulate questions.  My thanks for the prompt entry into the game.
NJW, I'm noticing a higher level of aggression from you than in previous games.  Why is that?
Also, and my apologies for "making this about me", but why did your post ignore the fact that I did in fact ask Max a question, and am in fact engaged in a minor dialog with them.  Or, why are you taking it so personally?
Why no questions for the Toonyman?

[EuchreJack]

I'm assuming Toony is making a play here, I don't take him to be the type use RNG as an actual case against somebody. Toony, what's your role?

@Roden: Your thoughts declaring roles?

It's been a consistently pro town game winning strategy to claim roles or at least half claim, mafia doesn't really get much wiggle room. Do you feel hesitant to claim this time?

I'm a Delayer btw.

I'll throw in my role.  I will say that I can tell if someone was targeted by an action.  Anyone else want to volunteer some info?

[webadict]

I did originally want to poke Tric but I'm fine seeing how Toony reacts to pressure.

Nah, the right play here is that ToonyMan is actually Town. ToonyMan is so Town that I plan to pocket him without ever engaging with him. Thus, my play has begun. MUAHAHAHA!

I'll throw in my role.  I will say that I can tell if someone was targeted by an action.  Anyone else want to volunteer some info?

i will not be volunteering information unless Forced to, as my role can determine If others are lying. Or maybe it can't, who can tell? I'm not a lie detector. the mafia will naturally assume this is a Soft/Hardclaim, and they'll be wrong. it's actually a fAkeCLAiM, NERDS!

Webadict: How are you planning to take advantage of the fact that half the players here are given to semi-truthfully roleclaiming almost immediately D1 come hell or high water?

Ummm... Sure, let's play that game. Usually anyone that claims immediately is more likely to be Town, and some players can be ascertained to be Town from this, since I very much wouldn't expect them to fakeclaim early. This list includes EuchreJack, TricMagic, and, perhaps surprisingly, Vector. The first two for obvious reasons, and the last because if Vector fakeclaims, they use all their available information, and they wouldn't risk a fakeclaim early. They, also, wouldn't be claiming early, period, so this will never happen.

I don't think Toonyman is really that dumb, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's mafia. It's not a good first-post look, though.

Wrong.

[TricMagic]

... It's Roden. Delayer isn't exactly townie, and we see how Toony's ealry gunsmith claim worked out last session.

Also, why you asking about my first post in advance Max?

Ninjadict

[EuchreJack]

... It's Roden. Delayer isn't exactly townie, and we see how Toony's ealry gunsmith claim worked out last session.

Hm, but WHY is a claim of delayer not a townie claim, especially in one's first post (as in the case with Roden)?

I'll throw in my role.  I will say that I can tell if someone was targeted by an action.  Anyone else want to volunteer some info?

i will not be volunteering information unless Forced to, as my role can determine If others are lying. Or maybe it can't, who can tell? I'm not a lie detector. the mafia will naturally assume this is a Soft/Hardclaim, and they'll be wrong. it's actually a fAkeCLAiM, NERDS!

Hm, your first post was actually much more subdued than I expected from you, Webadict.  Thanks, I guess. But, aren't most roles at least somewhat useful in determining if others are lying?