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[EuchreJack]

A current article on Republic of China:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65229003.amp

Wikipedia link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan

Originally this was supposed to be a thread about Republic of China (Taiwan) and People's Republic of China. But it seems to have derailed into mostly discussing People's Republic of China, to the point that I had to change the subject line. I guess that is ok, derails are normal on this forum. We will see if this topic is worth keeping. Anything to keep me out of AmeriPol! 

[brewer bob]

Taiwan has an interesting history complete with pirates, cannibals and a delegation of Kublai Khan being attacked and driven away after they demanded loyalty to the ruling dynasty (mistaking the island for another one).

[jipehog]

CaspianReport: America predicts war with China in 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f52FCWb5FEM

[ChairmanPoo]

The poster below me has lost 100 social credit.

[Strongpoint]

100? Well... Are you sure that sharing the following photo is worth only -100 credits?

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[jipehog]

Hmmm.. I can't figure out is that snub to XI? or a snub to image of winnie the pooh used for presenting the Wolf Warrior instead?

Correct me if I am wrong but aren't wolf warriors are regarded as very nationalistic sort of Fox crowd?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_warrior_diplomacy

[Strongpoint]

It is a Formosan black bear (endemic to Taiwan) punching the Pooh

[jipehog]

Never heard of it tbh, I thought it was a wolf like the one on the plane (should have payed attention to the blue on the flag). Make sense now that I seen the headlines about the Taiwanese air force badge in the wake of Chinese military exercise.


Btw what will happen if China instead of invading Taiwan blockade it. How would USA respond?

[EuchreJack]

I believe US official policy is that a Blockade IS an Invasion, otherwise it would already be happening.

Relevant:
https://www.britannica.com/topic/blockade-warfare

It's considered an act of war.

[jipehog]

If China peruse a blockade until USA influence is removed. Relevant unilateral measure by USA:
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis#Blockade

Such a move would generate FAR less international support than an invasion. And I doubt that USA would declare war on a nuclear power as evident by events in Ukraine, likely it would seek to build international diplomatic pressure but avoid any escalatory measures (the freedom of navigation around Crimea stopped after the UK destroyer was fired upon).

[Strongpoint]

The Cuban Crisis was different because USSR had no navy to contest this blockade, their only option was a full-scale war. USA is still far superior to whatever China can use to blockade.

So the question is not if USA will start a war responding to the blockade, the question is what China will do when several carrier groups arrive to lift this blockade

[jipehog]

China have a bigger navy what if they put in the way and warn USA off and otherwise ignore it.

How would USA 'contest' and attempt to 'lift' the blockade? Try ram Chinese ships or start a shooting war?

[Strongpoint]

China have a bigger navy what if they put in the way and warn USA off and otherwise ignore it.

How would USA 'contest' and attempt to 'lift' the blockade? Try ram Chinese ships or start a shooting war?

No, China doesn't have a larger navy. They have more hulls but a lot of those are corvettes and frigates, total tonnage (or the number of missiles+aircrafts on active ships) tell a different story.  What is more important, American Navy has centuries of experience refining its doctrines which the young Chinese navy lacks. Also, I was comparing to the USSR which had very modest navy in 1968, not to China

You want me to predict hypothetical events. I am saying that USA has steps to take which are far less drastic than declaring war. And sending its ships to Taiwan with "we dare you to try anything" message is a logical step.

[EuchreJack]

It also helps to realize what a Blockade actually is.
I'd suggest looking it up on Wikipedia

[jipehog]

China have a bigger navy what if they put in the way and warn USA off and otherwise ignore it.

How would USA 'contest' and attempt to 'lift' the blockade? Try ram Chinese ships or start a shooting war?

No, China doesn't have a larger navy. They have more hulls but a lot of those are corvettes and frigates, total tonnage (or the number of missiles+aircrafts on active ships) tell a different story.  What is more important, American Navy has centuries of experience refining its doctrines which the young Chinese navy lacks. Also, I was comparing to the USSR which had very modest navy in 1968, not to China

You want me to predict hypothetical events. I am saying that USA has steps to take which are far less drastic than declaring war. And sending its ships to Taiwan with "we dare you to try anything" message is a logical step.

non of that matter unless these step involve starting a shooting war, and yes many corvettes and frigates seem more useful to physically enforce a blockade than fancy aircraft carriers.

I suspect that USA would avoid any escalation over Taiwan (with which it have no longer a defense treaty) for the same reason you don't see NATO planes flying over Ukraine. Because if a shooting war does start, all it would take is one hypersonic anti-ship missile to sink an aircraft carrier for full blown war with nuclear power.  Also keep in mind that China would be operating near its mainland with its air and missile force in range.


EDIT: This is a very different scenario from China invading, and USA engage in proxy war by providing Taiwan arms.