So I've taken statistics, but I have no idea what equation I could use to determine this. Here's the basic setup.
1) You are trying to hit someone. They have a chance to dodge your punches.
2) Your have an anger problem, so every time you miss you are angry enough that your next 3 punches are guaranteed to hit (whether or not they would have hit already).
3) I'm looking for an equation that will allow me to determine the effect on a person's average ability to dodge with your anger problem vs. without it.
This is of course easy to calculate for some nice numbers. For example If they have a 33% chance of dodging without the anger problem then it becomes a 16.5% chance to dodge with it. The reason why is easy to see, if they have a 33% chance then that means on average they will dodge 1 in 3 strikes. Since your anger guarantees you are going to hit for 3 strikes that means that, on average, one of those three punches would have otherwise missed. Since you had to miss a punch in the first place to trigger the effect, the overall average means that for every miss there will be one punch that will hit when it would otherwise have missed, for a net reduction in average dodging power to half of what it would be normally, i.e. 33%->16.5%. 100% and 0% are also easy numbers to calculate, with 100% dodging ability with the anger resulting in a consistent pattern of 1 miss followed by three hits, resulting in a net dodging power of 100%->25%, and 0% means that you will never miss so we get 0%->0%.
Now at first I tried a couple different distribution methods at first but it quickly became obvious that that wasn't what I was looking for. After a bit of digging it seems like I might be looking for something built on top of an "expected value" equation, but I'm not totally sure how to set that up.
Ideally the equation should depend on the number of "guaranteed" anger hits you get after each miss along with their "base" ability to dodge your punches, but in a worst case scenario just one based on their base ability would work for my purposes as well too.