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[Zathras]

Zathras' explinations for how I could be an Alien:
Occam's Razor and/or Xantos Gambit (don't click that link if you value your free time)
Granted, it's always possible for things to go complex in Mafia, but we're no-where near the point where it's necessary to look that deep.

Occam's Razor doesn't apply when there is an intentional effort to deceive, which is the case in this game. And gambits are common here, aren't they? Yes, we should be looking deep.

Problems:
- If I'm the Exterminator and Dariush is my Agent, then why did Toaster lie about the claim? (He'd have to be a Dopp and working with us)

Dariush's modulator works around this.

- Also, why would he fake-claim that he scanned me? He'd know (or at least I'd know) that it's a death sentence for me as soon as he dies...

...if he dies. And he'd still would have your possible modulator as an excuse.

- If I'm the Exterminator and Dariush isn't my Agent, why'd he claim to clear me?  It'd be better for the Agent Operative to get the Exterminator killed.

Again, your modulator could have fooled him. It's one minor piece of small tech, that the exty could get from a replicator of his Op, so it seems like a reasonably safe choice to make that one exists or has existed in the game.

I'm not saying you must be it, the camo being the greatest obstacle (though not insurmountable), but nothing here says you can't be.

[Argembarger]

Well my arguments are already pretty much laid out already.

I still think it would be better if I was allowed to protect confirmed town tonight and prove myself, but it's not like we're at LyLo.

[JanusTwoface]

Occam's Razor doesn't apply when there is an intentional effort to deceive, which is the case in this game. And gambits are common here, aren't they? Yes, we should be looking deep.

The specific gambit though. That I would have had to plan all of this in advance. Essentially, I wish I had.

And I hadn't remembered the bot flavor, as you mentioned it.  Org was killed by a Human Assassin bot (see Dariush's kill's flavor for the counterpoint) and no one else has claimed the kill.  So either I'm Human or I used Combat Camo on that kill but not Criptfeinds.

1) Is that possible? I don't remember seeing it confirmed or denyed that Exterminators could use the Camo on kills other than their native one. The wording is vague, but leans towards no IMO.

2) Do you think I would have thought that far ahead? (This is the Xantos Gambit part)

Well my arguments are already pretty much laid out already.

I still think it would be better if I was allowed to protect confirmed town tonight and prove myself, but it's not like we're at LyLo.

Protecting a confirmed townie wouldn't really confirm you unless you managed to kill the Exterminator in doing so.  You could just as easily claimed you had protected someone and still do the Dopp kill or actually protect someone and forgo the Dopp kill for a night.

[Zathras]

And I hadn't remembered the bot flavor, as you mentioned it.  Org was killed by a Human Assassin bot (see Dariush's kill's flavor for the counterpoint) and no one else has claimed the kill.  So either I'm Human or I used Combat Camo on that kill but not Criptfeinds.

1) Is that possible? I don't remember seeing it confirmed or denyed that Exterminators could use the Camo on kills other than their native one. The wording is vague, but leans towards no IMO.

2) Do you think I would have thought that far ahead? (This is the Xantos Gambit part)

1) Yes, Meph confirmed it earlier today.
2) It's not that complex a gambit, essentially all it would require is to think ahead to use the camo as a tool for misdirection (masking some kills, but not others); this would be a novel strategy, but not particularly far fetched, and Jim's earlier comments show that it has potential to work. So yes, I do think you are devious enough to try it.

[JanusTwoface]

1) Is that possible? I don't remember seeing it confirmed or denyed that Exterminators could use the Camo on kills other than their native one. 1) Yes, Meph confirmed it earlier today.

Neat.

2) It's not that complex a gambit, essentially all it would require is to think ahead to use the camo as a tool for misdirection (masking some kills, but not others); this would be a novel strategy, but not particularly far fetched, and Jim's earlier comments show that it has potential to work. So yes, I do think you are devious enough to try it.

Why thank you. Wish I had.

I don't have time to try to poke holes in that right now. I'll try before the day ends (unlikely) or if I survive tomorrow (I hope). If I don't, there's really no point...

[Leafsnail]

Didn't forget the mindshield.  Just wanted to avoid being killed in the night.

And remember, if I'm the exterminator, the dopp knows I am.  So...

[Jim Groovester]

People.

Let us pursue theories that are the most straightforward with the least amount of qualifications before we start pursuing ridiculously complex theories with multiple unlikely conditions.

For example, here are some straightforward theories:

Toaster could have been lying about his role because it would be easy to fake claim.
Leafsnail could be lying about being a Survivor, as he is two for three for the Exterminator already, and the staggered nature of his claim is suspicious.

Here are some theories that are not straightforward.

JTF and Dariush could be the Exterminator team because they could have picked a Holoform Modulator along with several Assassin Bots as well as Combat Camouflage, which they only used to mask one kill, fake claimed Scanner usage on Day 3, and somehow managed to time their Holoform Modulator perfectly with Toaster's Detective inspect.
Jim Groovester is the final remaining doppelganger because the amount of WIFOM gained from bussing Ottofar, and subsequently losing webadict, and then claiming Kook, was well worth the trade in teammates and loss of a kill.

Don't get carried away with the tech and claim game. That's not to say don't consider it, but if you have to start picking the whole Exterminator tech choices to say that somebody could be scum you're probably going too far.

Keep it simple.

Night actions:
(Note: these are just what I would do, feel free to ignore me.)

If Argembarger is town:
- Zathras should block Leafsnail (see below) or one of the people that shouldn't have an action. Might block kill, at least will confirm Zathras again (not that that's necessary).
- Toaster should inspect Jim Groovester. The Kook bit will have no effect. If he's a Dopp Townie, then he would have done the night kill rather than Webadict.
- KaminaSquirtle should guard Toaster or Zathras (without telling us which), they're the most likely to find the dopp.

If Argembarger is the Dopp:
- Zathras should block Leafsnail. The flavor should tell us if he has a Mind Shield or Advanced Mind Shield.
- Toaster should inspect Dariush (to remove the possibility of a Holoform) or Leafsnail (and again the next night to counter a Holoform).
- KaminaSquirtle still on Toaster or Zathras.

Isn't Zathras blocking Leafsnail completely pointless? I don't see why Leafsnail would claim Mind Shield when he had an Advanced Mind Shield, especially if he was the Exterminator. The WIFOM of getting a false positive would be too valuable. I think at best Zathras would just be confirming that Leafsnail has a Mind Shield if he did that, and we don't learn anything new for tomorrow.

I think Zathras' block should go elsewhere, but it's obviously not up to me.

Leafsnail, why did you claim Survivor in the middle of the night in a PM to everybody? And why did you neglect to mention that you had a Mind Shield until today?

Simple answer?  I didn't want to be lynched or NK'd.  Since I'm, y'know, a survivor.  The later in the game it is, the less sense it makes for anyone on any side to kill me.

Why did you wait to claim Mind Shield until the start of the day?

And that doesn't really answer my question. Why during the night? What did you gain from not doing it during Day 3, or at the start of Day 4?

[Leafsnail]

Pretty obvious, isn't it?

Not in day 3 to avoid being lynched for it.

Not on day 4 to avoid a nightkill (since I lost my protection on the previous night).

Mind shield because a) it wasn't massclaim time yet, and the message I really wanted to get out was "Dopps and Dariush, don't kill me" (exterminator obviously already knew I was survivor, before you ask) and b) like I said, to avoid being nightkilled for it.

[Zathras]

For example, here are some straightforward theories:
Toaster could have been lying about his role because it would be easy to fake claim.
Leafsnail could be lying about being a Survivor, as he is two for three for the Exterminator already, and the staggered nature of his claim is suspicious.

I'm right there with you on Toaster, hard to test for, though; less so on Leaf, but it's certainly plausible.

Here are some theories that are not straightforward.
JTF and Dariush could be the Exterminator team because they could have picked a Holoform Modulator along with several Assassin Bots as well as Combat Camouflage, which they only used to mask one kill, fake claimed Scanner usage on Day 3, and somehow managed to time their Holoform Modulator perfectly with Toaster's Detective inspect.

Way to dismiss me as a kook, you kook. I explicitly didn't say it was the most likely, I just wanted to make sure I had the workings right; however, it's not as far fetched as you make it sound: each taking a bot is very straightforward (almost everyone that has access to a bot takes it), the modulator needs not be timed, it's taken at the start of the game, and the camo-as-misdirection is a viable strategy and would leave the ext as almost confirmed townie (as indeed JTF is in some's eyes). All are likely enough on their own, and require no extreme convoluted nested assumptions. Yeah, it's not the simplest possibility, but I don't agree the simplest will be the correct one (maybe the simplest are the first ones for us to test for, but that's not the same thing).

I think Zathras' block should go elsewhere, but it's obviously not up to me.

Yeah, there are several interesting possibilities, but of course I won't claim on the thread ahead of time. Suggestions over PM are welcome, of course, but I won't publicly confirm until tomorrow.

[KaminaSquirtle]

Unvote.

KaminaSquirtle, if I were the Exterminator, why would I claim Kook? Of aaaaaaall potential roles I could choose, why would I pick the worst one ever?

Because I'm an idiot and always manage to forget a key detail or two whenever I have an idea?

This, combined with Zathras's earlier point about blocking Argembarger, make me conclude that he is the most likely scum.

On to the more recent theorymongering.

You guys are overthinking this by quite a bit, I think.  Sure, there could be ext-op, but that would meant there were six scum this game.  I don't know about anyone else, but that seems like quite a few to me.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think that would make for a balanced game.  I just think that there are way too many conditions for this theory for it to be likely to be true.  It's still possible, but I think it's unlikely.

So then, if Jim's not exty, that would leave Leafsnail as my choice.  But if he's exty, I can't understand his survivor claim.  Ugh, no one quite fits.  I suppose that's why you guys are theorizing so much.

I wish I could be more active, but I've got a lot of work to do now, there's a math quiz on power series tomorrow.  :/

[JanusTwoface]

Isn't Zathras blocking Leafsnail completely pointless? I don't see why Leafsnail would claim Mind Shield when he had an Advanced Mind Shield, especially if he was the Exterminator. The WIFOM of getting a false positive would be too valuable. I think at best Zathras would just be confirming that Leafsnail has a Mind Shield if he did that, and we don't learn anything new for tomorrow.

I think Zathras' block should go elsewhere, but it's obviously not up to me.

I'm going on the theory that an Exterminator would have chosen the Advanced Mind Shield, thus not being blocked would be the telling condition for Zathras. Had I been the Exterminator, I probably would have, but I guess not everyone would.

I'm right there with you on Toaster, hard to test for, though; less so on Leaf, but it's certainly plausible.

Not really hard to test, if he was lying he's the last Dopp.  Just block him or lynch him tomorrow. Granted, the problem with both of those is that if he's innocent, we lose a Detective / his scan tonight.  Getting one more scan and lynching him if nothing better comes up tonight seems like a stronger plan.

You guys are overthinking this by quite a bit, I think.  Sure, there could be ext-op, but that would meant there were six scum this game.  I don't know about anyone else, but that seems like quite a few to me.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think that would make for a balanced game.  I just think that there are way too many conditions for this theory for it to be likely to be true.  It's still possible, but I think it's unlikely.

Six scum isn't necessarily too strong, given that they are on two opposing teams.  Each time needs to wipe out the other to win, so while it's possible for them to work together in the early game, they have to kill each other eventually.  Look back into one of the earlier Paranormals where there were Cultists and Dopps (both roughly equivalent Mafia groups) and all the cross-killing fun that went on there...

Thanks Mep. For the group: where I was going with this question was about Janus/Dariush as a team. For them to be it, they'd need two bots, combat camo, a stun orb and a modulator. Ext gets 1 large, 1 medium; he takes replicator and bot. Op gets 1 medium, 2 small; he gets bot, orb, mod. Replicator creates camo. Night one, the Exty Dariush gives camo to Janus the Op, Janus gives the Exty the modulator, Janus bots Org, Dariush (then Soli or Mish or whoever) kills Cript (or Exty Janus keeps camo and makes both kills). Night two, exty does not act or hits Leafsail. Night three Janus/Dariush concoct the claim plan, and were told Toaster inspected and gave the "agent op" as result; Janus gives Dariush the orb, who then goes and gets his way with MBP and Wuba, or one hits MBP and the other Wuba.

All of the tech could work out. Heck, it's actually a reasonable set of choices for an Exterminator / Operative combination, I'll give you that.

A few more potential problems:
- For Night 1 and Night 2, Dariush was Mish. I'm not terribly confident in Mish's ability to do any of this, although that could have been solved by me sending in night actions for both of us.
- Modulating Agent Operative instead of Exterminator Operative seems overly risky as it reflects badly on the other if either is killed or if Toaster inspects either of us tonight (a good reason not to block him for one more night).
- You'll have to take this on WIFOM, but I honestly didn't know that techs could be shared. Now that I do, I hope I get a chance to mess with that in the future.

[Mephansteras]

The Whiteboard
Argembarger: JanusTwoface, Jim Groovester, KaminaSquirtle, Leafsnail, Toaster, Zathras
Jim Groovester : Dariush


Day ends ~5pm Pacific Today

[Leafsnail]

KaminaSquirtle, if I were the Exterminator, why would I claim Kook? Of aaaaaaall potential roles I could choose, why would I pick the worst one ever?

It seriously looks like you could've copied this from the mafiascum wiki page for "WIFOM" then added then added in the relevant details.

The answer is very simple: So you'd be able to say

If I were the Exterminator, why would I claim Kook? Of aaaaaaall potential roles I could choose, why would I pick the worst one ever?

I mean, if you have a modulator, you can make yourself appear as any role.  If you don't, well, you're screwed if you're inspected whatever role you chose, so why not pick a super-WIFOM one?

[Zathras]

I'm going on the theory that an Exterminator would have chosen the Advanced Mind Shield, thus not being blocked would be the telling condition for Zathras.

Meph, a question: just like the combat camo, can the advanced mindshield be turned on/off or toned down at will? I mean, if I had an adv. mindshield, could I choose to use it as a normal one so my blocker would know his block failed instead of getting the misleading "success" message?

I'm right there with you on Toaster, hard to test for, though; less so on Leaf, but it's certainly plausible.

Not really hard to test, if he was lying he's the last Dopp.  Just block him or lynch him tomorrow.

Well, yeah; if Arg flips town that is a valid test. I rather meant it would be hard to test if Arg flips as the last dopp, as we all seem to think he will.


Dariush: you have not replied to my request of additional flavour on last night actions; your refusal to do so makes you look (even more) scummy. Also, do you still think Jim is the last dopp? I'm not asking you to jump on the wagon, but I want to hear your opinion and arguments on your vote. Do you have any additional ideas for tonight's actions or options?

[Mephansteras]

I'm going on the theory that an Exterminator would have chosen the Advanced Mind Shield, thus not being blocked would be the telling condition for Zathras.

Meph, a question: just like the combat camo, can the advanced mindshield be turned on/off or toned down at will? I mean, if I had an adv. mindshield, could I choose to use it as a normal one so my blocker would know his block failed instead of getting the misleading "success" message?

An Advanced Mind Shield could be turned off for a night (as could a regular Tech mindshield, but not a natural one). However, that would have to be stated without knowing whether or not they'll be targeted that night.

Similar to a War Vet choosing not to shoot people for an evening. It's an all-or-nothing affair for the night.