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Author Topic: Armchair Economics Thread - Alchemy Edition  (Read 44166 times)

Loud Whispers

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #465 on: March 01, 2025, 11:25:55 am »

In case anyone missed it, there was an Economic Blackout on February 28, 2025.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/economic-blackout-feb-24-hour-february-28-2025-peoples-union/

Mainstream media picked it up, rather reluctantly, and then largely minimized. This means that it's probably done more than most people think.
Oh hey that's a pretty cool idea actually, no wonder I didn't hear about it

McTraveller

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #466 on: March 01, 2025, 01:27:28 pm »

I almost got my family to manage to do this - my wife can't say no to my daughter getting fast food after ice skating, a regular thing on Friday nights.
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Duuvian

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #467 on: March 02, 2025, 07:32:26 am »

In case anyone missed it, there was an Economic Blackout on February 28, 2025.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/economic-blackout-feb-24-hour-february-28-2025-peoples-union/

Mainstream media picked it up, rather reluctantly, and then largely minimized. This means that it's probably done more than most people think.
Oh hey that's a pretty cool idea actually, no wonder I didn't hear about it

I'm not hearing about any of these things until the day of or the day after when NPR says there was an event today. I'm not watching TV news, is it the same there? It would be useful if future events made the news in time for it to make the rounds. Are there any news sites doing work on that currently?

I posted in the sales thread about a Steam sale on the 28th early in the morning and then heard only a few hours later on NPR and added an EDIT to the post about the blackout.

I checked the Sanders site and still no tour dates. I think it's gatewayed behind a signup that would lead to me being asked for the wrong thing, donations rather than attendance.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2025, 07:38:28 am by Duuvian »
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EuchreJack

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #468 on: March 05, 2025, 04:52:43 pm »

As Trump drives the US and the World into a recession, I would like to remind everyone that during the Recession caused by the COVID pandemic, the Rich kept getting Rich.

This Recession ain't gonna hurt our Rich US Oligarchs.

Duuvian

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #469 on: March 07, 2025, 07:42:26 am »

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-levy-fees-ships-linked-china-push-allies-do-similar-draft-exec-order-2025-03-06/
Exclusive: US to levy fees on China-linked ships, push allies to do likewise, draft executive order says

I asked the robot Copilot:

Here are the top 10 maritime shipping companies based on dockings in the US for the past year, along with the estimated percentage of their fleets built in Chinese shipyards:

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC): Approximately 35-45%

Maersk Line: Around 30-40%

CMA CGM: About 40-50%

COSCO Shipping: Over 70%

Hapag-Lloyd: Roughly 25-35%

ONE (Ocean Network Express): Around 30-40%

Evergreen Line: Approximately 50-60%

Yang Ming Marine Transport: About 40-50%

HMM (Hyundai Merchant Marine): Around 30-40%

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services: Roughly 20-30%

These percentages are estimates and can vary based on new ship orders and fleet expansions. Chinese shipyards are popular due to their cost-effectiveness and advanced facilities, making them a preferred choice for many shipping companies.

If you need more detailed information on a specific company, feel free to ask!

How many ships from this list does this amount to
Based on the fleet sizes of the top 10 maritime shipping companies, here are the approximate numbers of ships built in Chinese shipyards:

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC): 35-45% of 889 ships = ~311-400 ships

Maersk Line: 30-40% of 735 ships = ~221-294 ships

CMA CGM: 40-50% of 664 ships = ~266-332 ships

COSCO Shipping: Over 70% of 518 ships = ~363+ ships

Hapag-Lloyd: 25-35% of 300 ships = ~75-105 ships

ONE (Ocean Network Express): 30-40% of 257 ships = ~77-103 ships

Evergreen Line: 50-60% of 226 ships = ~113-136 ships

Yang Ming Marine Transport: 40-50% of 98 ships = ~39-49 ships

HMM (Hyundai Merchant Marine): 30-40% of 83 ships = ~25-33 ships

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services: 20-30% of 130 ships = ~26-39 ships
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FINISHED original composition:
https://app.box.com/s/jq526ppvri67astrc23bwvgrkxaicedj

Sort of finished and awaiting remix due to loss of most recent song file before addition of drums:
https://www.box.com/s/s3oba05kh8mfi3sorjm0 <-zguit

Loud Whispers

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #470 on: March 07, 2025, 04:13:03 pm »

As Trump drives the US and the World into a recession, I would like to remind everyone that during the Recession caused by the COVID pandemic, the Rich kept getting Rich.

This Recession ain't gonna hurt our Rich US Oligarchs.
at least the egg prices

Duuvian

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #471 on: March 08, 2025, 10:56:41 am »

https://www.reuters.com/markets/china-announces-retaliatory-tariffs-some-canada-farm-food-products-2025-03-08/
China hits back at Canada with fresh agriculture tariffs

Spoiler: In response to (click to show/hide)

It appears the choice may be between losing custodianship of hockey as spoils between Russia and the US, or the driving of affordable electric vehicles. If only someone had warned everyone that cheap, competitive evs are a good thing! I sure wish US automakers and in particular the union had such a hero explaining despite the risk of being UNPOPULAR that replacing the entire fleet actually made business sense, at least for them! <hops on razor scooter from 2003 and zooms away>
« Last Edit: March 08, 2025, 11:07:49 am by Duuvian »
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FINISHED original composition:
https://app.box.com/s/jq526ppvri67astrc23bwvgrkxaicedj

Sort of finished and awaiting remix due to loss of most recent song file before addition of drums:
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #472 on: March 08, 2025, 11:22:06 am »

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-levy-fees-ships-linked-china-push-allies-do-similar-draft-exec-order-2025-03-06/
Exclusive: US to levy fees on China-linked ships, push allies to do likewise, draft executive order says

I asked the robot Copilot:

Here are the top 10 maritime shipping companies based on dockings in the US for the past year, along with the estimated percentage of their fleets built in Chinese shipyards:

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC): Approximately 35-45%

Maersk Line: Around 30-40%

CMA CGM: About 40-50%

COSCO Shipping: Over 70%

Hapag-Lloyd: Roughly 25-35%

ONE (Ocean Network Express): Around 30-40%

Evergreen Line: Approximately 50-60%

Yang Ming Marine Transport: About 40-50%

HMM (Hyundai Merchant Marine): Around 30-40%

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services: Roughly 20-30%

These percentages are estimates and can vary based on new ship orders and fleet expansions. Chinese shipyards are popular due to their cost-effectiveness and advanced facilities, making them a preferred choice for many shipping companies.

If you need more detailed information on a specific company, feel free to ask!

How many ships from this list does this amount to
Based on the fleet sizes of the top 10 maritime shipping companies, here are the approximate numbers of ships built in Chinese shipyards:

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC): 35-45% of 889 ships = ~311-400 ships

Maersk Line: 30-40% of 735 ships = ~221-294 ships

CMA CGM: 40-50% of 664 ships = ~266-332 ships

COSCO Shipping: Over 70% of 518 ships = ~363+ ships

Hapag-Lloyd: 25-35% of 300 ships = ~75-105 ships

ONE (Ocean Network Express): 30-40% of 257 ships = ~77-103 ships

Evergreen Line: 50-60% of 226 ships = ~113-136 ships

Yang Ming Marine Transport: 40-50% of 98 ships = ~39-49 ships

HMM (Hyundai Merchant Marine): 30-40% of 83 ships = ~25-33 ships

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services: 20-30% of 130 ships = ~26-39 ships
The allies to whom he's applying random tariffs to? Those allies?

LOL
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EuchreJack

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #473 on: March 08, 2025, 05:21:28 pm »

Another call for an Economic Blackout, this time targeting Amazon for one week: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/03/07/business/amazon-economic-blackout

I'm uncertain about this only because "The enemy of my enemy is my friend". Bezos is an awful human being, but he's the greatest threat long-term to Elon.

Loud Whispers

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #474 on: March 08, 2025, 11:00:56 pm »

Another call for an Economic Blackout, this time targeting Amazon for one week: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/03/07/business/amazon-economic-blackout

I'm uncertain about this only because "The enemy of my enemy is my friend". Bezos is an awful human being, but he's the greatest threat long-term to Elon.
Anything which targets the root cause of Elons and Bezos's outsized power & wealth consolidation is a step in the right direction. The greatest threat long-term to Elon is not another billionaire who has the same aligned interests of subverting democracy, it's a democracy that enforces antitrust laws and puts his government contracts under review

EuchreJack

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #475 on: March 09, 2025, 05:53:58 am »

Another call for an Economic Blackout, this time targeting Amazon for one week: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/03/07/business/amazon-economic-blackout

I'm uncertain about this only because "The enemy of my enemy is my friend". Bezos is an awful human being, but he's the greatest threat long-term to Elon.
Anything which targets the root cause of Elons and Bezos's outsized power & wealth consolidation is a step in the right direction. The greatest threat long-term to Elon is not another billionaire who has the same aligned interests of subverting democracy, it's a democracy that enforces antitrust laws and puts his government contracts under review
Fair enough

McTraveller

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #476 on: March 09, 2025, 08:43:12 pm »

It's an interesting case study in the difference between "real" wealth and paper wealth. Including how paper wealth can be used to have such a major impact socioeconomically, even though it's not representative of ability of society to produce goods and services.
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Great Order

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Land Ho!
« Reply #477 on: March 09, 2025, 10:25:00 pm »

Oh yeah, Musk being so damn powerful despite Tesla being a pretty pathetic car company's a solid example.
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McTraveller

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Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Alchemy Edition
« Reply #479 on: April 03, 2025, 12:18:18 pm »

So I don't want to bring the politics into this, but merely focus on the economic question.

Today we saw world equities markets drop significantly, the US dollar dropped versus foreign currencies, but the price of gold in US dollars also dropped.

This makes me realize that I'm not sure what demand for gold (as priced in USD) represents. My naive expectation was that if the expectations for the US economy were dollar devaluation and US inflation, then gold would go up in price, indicating a devaluing of the USD.

If gold drops, does this indicate that gold is not just a proxy for the real value of a dollar, but also includes a measure of overall economic growth? That is, the price of gold is something like "expectation of overall economic growth / value of a dollar"?  So for a constant expectation of growth and a falling dollar, price of gold goes up. Or if value of a dollar is constant but growth expectations drop, gold drops.

I'm curious about this one, and others' thoughts on the matter!
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